Primary Elections 101: How to Actually Make a Difference in Texas Politics

The Real Election in Texas Often Happens in March, Not November

In Texas, most legislative races are already decided before November even arrives. The primary election in March is where your actual representative gets chosen.

Due to gerrymandering and partisan sorting, the vast majority of Texas districts are “locked-in” for one party, meaning whichever candidate wins that party’s primary in March will almost certainly win in November.

But here’s the kicker: during that same cycle, only 17% of eligible voters participated in the primaries, meaning a tiny, usually ideologically extreme slice of the electorate is choosing representatives for everyone.

If you’ve ever wondered why Texas politics feels more polarized than actual Texans, this is why. The primaries are where extremism gets locked in, moderates get squeezed out, and Builders sit on the sidelines wondering why nothing ever changes.

What Is a “Locked-In” District?

A “locked-in” (or “safe”) district is one where historical voting patterns and district boundaries heavily favor one party. Analysts track this by looking at past election results, voter registration data, and partisan voting indexes.

Texas has many such districts, largely due to long-term geographic sorting and aggressive redistricting after the 2020 census. According to election analysts and nonpartisan trackers, the majority of Texas congressional districts are not competitive in general elections.

That means if the district leans overwhelmingly Republican, the GOP primary winner is very likely to win in November. If the district leans overwhelmingly Democratic, the Democratic primary winner is very likely to win in November. Republicans hold large majorities in rural and suburban districts while Democrats hold urban districts.

So while November feels like the “main event,” March is often where the real choice is made.

Where the Primary Is the Real Election

Republican-Dominant Districts

In many North and East Texas districts, Republican candidates routinely win general elections by double-digit margins. GOP nominees are very likely to win in November, making the March GOP primary the de facto election.

TX-2, Houston Metro (NE & SE): Currently held by Dan Crenshaw, who won in 2024 by 31 points.
TX-3, North Dallas Suburbs/Rural Northeast: Held by Keith Self. While redistricting added five new rural counties, it is rated “Solid Republican”.
TX-4, NE Texas/Dallas Suburbs: Held by Pat Fallon, who won his 2024 race by 37 points.
TX-6, SE of Dallas/Fort Worth: Held by Jake Ellzey, who won in 2024 by 31 points.
TX-12, West Tarrant/Parker Counties: Redrawn in 2025 to be even more conservative; it backed Donald Trump by 24 points in 2024 and is considered out of reach for Democrats.
TX-13, Panhandle & North Texas: Consistently rated as a solid Republican stronghold.
TX-14, Upper Gulf Coast: Traditionally very safe Republican territory.
TX-17, Central/East Texas: Consistently rated as a solid Republican stronghold.
TX-19, South Plains/West Texas: Consistently rated as a solid Republican stronghold.
TX-24, Mid-Cities (Dallas/Fort Worth): Held by Beth Van Duyne. Despite being a suburban Dallas district, it is rated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” for 2026.
TX-25, North Central/West of DFW: Consistently rated as a solid Republican stronghold.

In districts like these, voters who sit out the primary are effectively letting a much smaller, more ideologically intense group choose the representative for everyone.

Democratic-Dominant Districts

That dynamic also exists on the Democratic side:

TX-7, Houston (West/SW): Includes wealthy and diverse areas of West Houston, Bellaire, and parts of Fort Bend County.
TX-16, El Paso: Centered on the city of El Paso and the surrounding border communities.
TX-18, Houston (Central/North): A historic stronghold including downtown, Third Ward, and the Heights. It is currently vacant following the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner, with a runoff set for January 31, 2026.
TX-20, San Antonio (West/Central): Anchored by downtown and western San Antonio.
TX-29, Houston (East): A heavily Latino district covering East Houston, Pasadena, and Galena Park.
TX-30, South Dallas: Includes parts of downtown Dallas and southern Dallas County, represented by Jasmine Crockett.
TX-33, Dallas/Tarrant County: A diverse district covering parts of Fort Worth and Dallas; redrawn in 2025 to consolidate Democratic voters from surrounding areas.
TX-37: Austin (Central/West): Centered on downtown Austin and the University of Texas campus, held by Lloyd Doggett.

The same thing happens in these districts. When one party is guaranteed to win, the only meaningful choice happens inside that party’s primary.

What about State Legislature Races?

In Texas’ State Legislature races, partisan lean is even more entrenched. Because of this, state legislative primaries shape the November makeup more than the general election itself.

To see whether you live in a “safe Democrat” or “safe Republican” district for the Texas State Legislature race, visit Ballotpedia (link for Texas House, link for Texas State Senate), click on your district, and scroll to see past election results. A district is generally considered “safe” for a party if they have won by a margin of 10 to 12 percentage points or more in recent elections.

If your district is “safe” for either party, you can be confident that the primary election is likely where your vote actually matters.

Why This Fuels Polarization

Texas primaries have abysmally low turnout compared to general elections, and that changes everything about who wins and how they govern.

When only 15-20% of eligible voters show up in March, candidates don’t build broad coalitions. They cater to the most committed, ideological, and predictable slice of the electorate (known as high-propensity voters) because those are the only people who reliably vote. Moderates, independents, and casual voters stay home, which means their preferences don’t matter. A candidate can win a primary with support from just 8-10% of all eligible voters in a district, and that’s exactly what happens.

The result is representatives who reflect the extremes of their party (whether that’s the furthest left in deep blue districts or the furthest right in deep red ones) rather than what most people in that district actually want.

Low turnout rewards ideological purity over pragmatism, and until Builders start showing up in primaries, the extremes will keep picking everyone’s representatives.

Make a Plan to Vote in the Texas Primaries

The best thing you can do is make a plan to vote in the Texas primaries on March 3.

Start by confirming your voter registration status on the Texas Secretary of State’s website.

Decide which party’s primary you plan to vote in. Texas has open primaries, meaning you can choose which party’s primary you want to vote in on election day without registering with that party in advance, but you can only participate in one.

Check out your party’s sample ballot ahead of time so you’re not making decisions in the booth.

Then choose how you’ll vote. Primary Election Day is March 3. Early voting begins on February 17 and ends on February 27. You can also apply for a ballot by mail now, but the election office must receive it by 7 p.m. on Election Day, March 3 (you have until 5 p.m. March 4 if it’s postmarked by 7 p.m. on Election Day).

Texas primaries aren’t a warm-up act. In many districts, they are the election.

If we want representatives who reflect more than the loudest voices, the path runs through education, participation, and showing up when the real decision is being made.

March doesn’t get the drama of November. But in Texas, it often holds the power.

—Alex Buscemi (abuscemi@buildersmovement.org)

Art by Matthew Lewis